MLB Betting: Watching the Umpires

Few on-field officials have more say in the outcome of a professional sporting event than MLB umpires. Online sportsbook experts take everything from the weather to the groundskeeper into account when it comes to betting on MLB baseball. That is especially true when it comes to the umpires and how they can affect the betting on over-under numbers for each game. The over-under bet is one that deals with the total number of runs in a game. Most MLB betting experts follow umpires and keep track of each umpire’s effect on the over-under. The results are pretty dramatic.

A MLB umpire does not affect Super Bowl betting, but he can have a huge effect on the outcome of a MLB contest. Betting websites have been collecting data on umpires for years, and the trends show that umpires with generous strike zones tend to have games that go over the run total and umpires with tight strike zones tend to officiate games that go under. The results are almost 60 percent on each side. That means that an umpire who is known to have a generous strike zone will 6 out of every 10 games he calls go over the run total. Those are pretty good odds.

A lot can go into these stats that can change them. If the MLB front office feels that an umpire’s strike zone is too wide or too tight, then the league may ask the umpire to adjust his zone. It does not happen often, but it does happen. Baseball is one of those games that relies almost solely on human judgment. There are no absolutes in baseball, but finding patterns like this can help you more when you place your next bet.